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A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."